Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 18, 2018

Jobs data released this week was very positive, with jobless claims at their lowest levels since 1969. On top of that, the frequently volatile Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 34.4 versus the predicted 21.0. As far as geopolitical events having an impact on trading we had some uncertainty over North Korea - South Korea talks even happening, let alone the historic meeting between a US Pres and North Korean leader. However, this did little to move the markets, as has the continuing back and forth over a US-China trade war.…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 11, 2018

Most of the economic data released this week has been in line with predictions and expectations resulting in a little to no impact on the long-term bond market, which has a direct effect on mortgage rates. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) reacted negatively yesterday to two factors: oil moving above $71/barrel, and a slight reduction in geopolitical concerns.  It remains to be seen what will unfold with Iran, but with Wednesday's announcement, the market has moved on and to a positive reaction in the scheduling of the North Korea talks. The bigger picture for…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 4, 2018

While the stock market had a sell-off after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday, the mortgage bond market did not react to the Fed's leaving the overnight rate alone. Bond traders have already factored in the Fed's position on inflation and their predicted rate increases for the year and this month's FOMC meeting did not challenge that at all. While some key economic data hit the Fed's 2% target inflation rate, these are one-time markers, and the Fed is looking for a trend that encompasses a broader span of time to…continue reading →

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Quickly Heading Towards 5%

Mortgage Rates Recap and Outlook For the Week Ending April 27, 2018 30 Year Fixed Mortgage rates for Conforming Loans (Loan Amount $453,100 and below) climbed to the highest levels since September 2013. 30 Year Fixed Mortgage rates for Jumbo Loans (Loan Amount >$453,100) climbed to the highest levels since January 2014. The 15 Year Fixed mortgage rates climbed to the highest level in  7 years (Since April 2011). The 5/1 ARM rate didn't fare any better- rising to the highest level since February 2011. Because of the rapidly rising rate, the refinance share…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending April 20, 2018

Mortgage-backed securities have languished in the same trading 'rut' for the last ten weeks. What's important about that is the top of the 'rut,' and the bottom of that 'rut,' and here's why. As the markets react to the release of economic indicators, national, and global news, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities have been rising and falling within the same tight range (i.e., the 'rut'). If they were to break out above the top of the range - mortgage rates would fall, and if they were to fall below the bottom of the range…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending April 6, 2018

The markets continue to be impacted primarily by trade war fears, as China fires back this week with a list of trade tariffs against US goods after the US announced new tariffs on Tuesday. Both countries have not immediately implemented the tariffs, setting the stage for talks that will likely produce new formal trade agreements. This is the likely eventual outcome of the trade war drama that's impacted the markets in the last few weeks. The other significant market news this week was the reported increase in trade deficits, now at -$56.7 billion,…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending March 29, 2018

The markets will close ahead of the long weekend at 2 pm EST on March 29th, and traders began 'parking" money in the bond market late Wednesday, the 28th. That means the market will react to the economic data released this week until Monday, April 2nd. We'll see traders moving money out of bonds and putting it to work, based on the data showing inflation increasing slightly. Top of the economic indicators released this week was the Feds key measure of inflation - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) with a year-over-year (YOY) reading of…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending March 23, 2018

This week's news focused on the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Committee meeting on March 21st, with minimal speculation about the outcome of the meeting -- an increase in the Federal Funds overnight rate.  There was a surprisingly mild reaction in the bond and stock market after the Fed hiked the rate from 1.5 to 1.75%, and increased their economic projections. But -- when the Fed meets, the real impact on the market is in the minutes of the meeting and commentary by individual Fed officials. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) moved to their…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending March 16, 2018

This week's news has had little impact on mortgage rates.  Trade war concerns shifted from steel and aluminum tariffs to China's history of piracy issues in technology and intellectual property. The majority of the media commentary is around the appointment of Larry Kudlow as White House economic advisor. Kudlow has a pro-growth, anti-tariff, pro-tax-cuts stance, and those are negatives for long bonds (which directly impact mortgage rates). The elephant in the room is the Senate's passing a bipartisan bill relaxing restrictions placed on the banking industry via the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.  The new…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending March 9, 2018

The big news dominating financial markets right now is split between the continued improvement in employment numbers and the potential impact of the pending Tariffs on steel and aluminum. So far this year, most economic releases have met or exceeded predictions, proving that the economy is growing. But right now - the focus of the markets is on speculation about a potential global trade war when the tariff bill is signed by President Trump. As far as the upcoming Fed meeting, markets have already absorbed the effect of the pending rate increase. The…continue reading →

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