Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending June 15, 2018

After trending down for the last two weeks, mortgage rates increased over the previous week and could continue that trend. This week saw the Federal Reserve raising not only the Fed Funds rate, but also the Prime Credit rate, and the Reserve Balance rate. In comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, a hawkish shift from the Fed is apparent. Based on robust economic data, healthy rate of job growth and increased consumer spending, the Fed feels the potential to increase rates again in 2018 is likely. The increase in Retail Sales is…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending June 8, 2018

Without any geopolitical flare-ups over the last week, the impact of economic data has been very mild with no measurable effect on the markets or mortgage rates.  The biggest job news was the filing of Jobless claims coming in slightly below predictions, but the 4-week moving average ticked up to 225,500 - amazingly low. Global economic news has also had little effect on mortgage rates, with continued talk of a timeline to end qualitative easing (QE) in the ECB the only topic of import. While the markets are quiet now, all eyes are…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending June 1, 2018

The market continued to improve in the early part of the week, led by the drama coming from Italy and a sharp drop in oil prices.  These issues are no longer impacting the markets, and mid-week Mortgage Backed Securities began to move back into the red, creating a slight pressure of increasing rates to come. Year over year PCE, the key inflation indicator, came in at 1.8% - below the Feds target of 2% - and other economic data was also relatively mild. The release of the Feds Beige Book yesterday (not a…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 25, 2018

Some old influences on the long-term bond market worked to slightly lower rates this week, as fear of geopolitical events sparked a move of institutional money into the safety of the long-term bonds. Specifically - the negative talk from North Korea's leader and officials and the cancelation of the summit next month with the US brought back the fear factor that had influenced the market a couple of months ago. On top of that, the Mortgage-Backed Securities markets benefited from a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve based on concerns about trade…continue reading →

What Interest Rate Can You Really Get For Your Mortgage?

When you set out to buy a home, one of the first things you look at is where mortgage interest rates are these days. The second thing you want to know is can you get that rate? If the answer is no and you can only get a higher interest rate, you'll want to know what gives? Understanding how they determine the interest rate you qualify for, versus what you see in a general online search, is critical. It boils down to the risk you represent to the lender, based on specific factors…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 18, 2018

Jobs data released this week was very positive, with jobless claims at their lowest levels since 1969. On top of that, the frequently volatile Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 34.4 versus the predicted 21.0. As far as geopolitical events having an impact on trading we had some uncertainty over North Korea - South Korea talks even happening, let alone the historic meeting between a US Pres and North Korean leader. However, this did little to move the markets, as has the continuing back and forth over a US-China trade war.…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 11, 2018

Most of the economic data released this week has been in line with predictions and expectations resulting in a little to no impact on the long-term bond market, which has a direct effect on mortgage rates. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) reacted negatively yesterday to two factors: oil moving above $71/barrel, and a slight reduction in geopolitical concerns.  It remains to be seen what will unfold with Iran, but with Wednesday's announcement, the market has moved on and to a positive reaction in the scheduling of the North Korea talks. The bigger picture for…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending May 4, 2018

While the stock market had a sell-off after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday, the mortgage bond market did not react to the Fed's leaving the overnight rate alone. Bond traders have already factored in the Fed's position on inflation and their predicted rate increases for the year and this month's FOMC meeting did not challenge that at all. While some key economic data hit the Fed's 2% target inflation rate, these are one-time markers, and the Fed is looking for a trend that encompasses a broader span of time to…continue reading →

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Quickly Heading Towards 5%

Mortgage Rates Recap and Outlook For the Week Ending April 27, 2018 30 Year Fixed Mortgage rates for Conforming Loans (Loan Amount $453,100 and below) climbed to the highest levels since September 2013. 30 Year Fixed Mortgage rates for Jumbo Loans (Loan Amount >$453,100) climbed to the highest levels since January 2014. The 15 Year Fixed mortgage rates climbed to the highest level in  7 years (Since April 2011). The 5/1 ARM rate didn't fare any better- rising to the highest level since February 2011. Because of the rapidly rising rate, the refinance share…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending April 20, 2018

Mortgage-backed securities have languished in the same trading 'rut' for the last ten weeks. What's important about that is the top of the 'rut,' and the bottom of that 'rut,' and here's why. As the markets react to the release of economic indicators, national, and global news, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities have been rising and falling within the same tight range (i.e., the 'rut'). If they were to break out above the top of the range - mortgage rates would fall, and if they were to fall below the bottom of the range…continue reading →