San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 01/03/2010

Your weekly dose of economy and mortgage market news that affects mortgage rates for San Jose Home Home owners and buyers. The Week that was: Another bad week for the bond and mortgage markets. The 10 yr treasury note and mortgage rates have now increased 60 basis points in the past three weeks. Freddie Mac reported in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.14 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 31, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 5.05 percent. The 5-year…continue reading →

Mortgage Rates go up sharply for Bay Area Homes

In last 3 weeks, 30 year fixed mortgage rates have gone up 34 basis points for San Francisco (SF) Bay Area homes. In the latest results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey┬« Freddie Mac reported 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 24, 2009. The 15-year Fixed Rate this week averaged 4.45 percent with an average 0.6 point. The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.40 percent this week. These rates are for conforming loan amount $417,000 and lower. Higher loan amounts come with higher…continue reading →

San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 12/20/2009

The week that was: The statement from the last FOMC meeting wasnt much of a change. The fed stuck to keeping the rates low for "extended period". But how "extended" is "extended" - now that's anybody's guess! Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.94 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 17, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.19 percent. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.37…continue reading →

San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 12/13/2009

The Week that was: The bond and mortgage markets were choppy, swinging on weak Treasury auctions (the 10 yr and 30 yr). Not much in the way of economic measurements but what there was were better than what had been expected. Retails in Nov were better than markets were looking for, the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index indicated consumers are increasing their optimism about the economic outlook, and while somewhat ignored in the past couple of years as a positive, the Oct international trade deficit declined for the first time in years.…continue reading →

San Jose Weekly Mortgage Commentary 12/6/09

The week that was

  • Oct existing and new home sales were much better than economists thought, the manufacturing sector better than thought, and auto sales stronger.
  • The Nov employment report on Friday really shook things up; job losses only 11K with the unemployment rate lower, to 10.0% frm 10.2% in Oct and Sept.
  • Interest rates increased last week by 25 basis points for the 10 yr note and 30 yr mortgages. While there is a general view that the Nov employment report was skewed a little and the decline in job losses an anomaly, with long term interest rates at these historic low levels, no one is willing to stand on that thought and rates continued to increase.

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San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 11/29/2009

The week that was:

  • The minutes from the 11/4 FOMC meeting were released. Fed's minutes reiterated the Fed isn't anywhere close to increasing interest rates.
  • Fed governors and regional bank presidents predicted the jobless rate will range from 9.3% to 9.7% in next year fourth quarter.
  • Oct personal income increased 0.2% and spending was up 0.7%.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 67.7 from 70.6 on the final read in Oct and slightly better than 66.0 two weeks ago.
  • Oct new home sales jumped 6.2%. There is a 6.7 month supply based on current sales, the lowest level since 12/06.
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association reported for the week ending November 20, 2009, mortgage loan application volume decreased 4.5% from one week earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 9.5% from the previous week The Purchase Index increased 9.6% from one week earlier.
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.82% from 4.83%, with points increasing to 1.19 from 1.18 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

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San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 11/22/2009

The week that was:

  • Oct retail sales were +1.4% overall and ex autos +0.2%. Retail sales are increasingly of interest to markets as we move into Christmas shopping ( the politically correct reference is Holiday shopping).
  • NY Empire State manufacturing data; the overall index declined to 23.51 from 34.57 in October.
  • Housing starts crumbled like a fresh saltine, down 10.6%, permits -4.6%.
  • With mortgage rates well below 5.00% (with a fee) purchases were down and re-finances were lower according to the MBA data released on Wednesday.
  • Mortgage prices and mortgage rates were literally unchanged this week.
Last week Bernanke's speech Monday to the NY Economics Club he reiterated he would keep rates low; essentially admitted he has little insight as to how the economic recovery will unfold and remarked "The best thing we can say about the labor market right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly." In layman speak, he isn't sure the unemployment situation is at its bottom.

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San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 11/15/2009

The week that was:

Not much in the way of economic measurements last week; it was a four day week for the bond and mortgage markets with Veteran's Day falling on Wednesday.

  • Weekly MBA mortgage applications index was +3.2% from last week; it was all re-finances, its index up 11.3% while purchase applications dropped a huge 11.7% to its lowest level since Dec 2000. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 71.5% of total applications from 66.1% the previous week. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.90% from 4.97%, with points increasing to 1.03 from 1.01 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV.
  • Weekly jobless claims continued to decline last week, down another 12K for the previous week but still at 512K new unemployment claims filed.
  • The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index decreased to a three-month low of 66 from 70.6 in October.
  • A report from the Commerce Department showed the trade deficit widened in September by the most in a decade as rising demand for imported oil and automobiles swamped a fifth consecutive gain in exports.

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San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 11/08/09

The Week that was: After the dust settled interest rates ended the week about unchanged from the previous week; the stock market gained on continued better data from manufacturing and services sectors (DJIA +311). Two events marked the week:
  1. The FOMC policy statement on Wednesday and Friday's employment report. The Fed in the statement at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting reiterated there is no concern on the Fed's part that inflation has any chance in the immediate future, and that the Fed will allow interest rates (the Fed funds rate) to remain low for "an extended" period of time. The statement was no different than what the Fed has been saying in past three FOMC meetings.
  2. Friday's employment report for Oct revealed more jobs lost than was expected, -190K; it however, was offset with revisions to Sept and Aug non-farm jobs that added back a total of 91K from the original releases. The unemployment rate jumped substantially more than economists were expecting, to 10.2% frm 9.8% in Sept; a sizeable increase.
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Government’s role in Housing, How far will it go?

This year Government has announced a ton of programs to prop up the Housing Market. Some of the major programs have been geared towards Foreclosure Prevention by launching 125% refinance program and incentivising Loan Servicers for modifying loans for struggling home owners. The Higher Conforming Loan Limits up to $729,750 would also be extended through 2010. Of course, all this has come with increased regulation. My focus on this blog is to talk about 3 actions that has had the most impact: Action #1 Buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) The Government earlier this…continue reading →