Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 8/30/2009
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The week that was
A little better in the rate markets; the 10 yr note yield fell 12 BPs and mortgages down about 8 BPs. Choppy trade once again characterized the action last week. Treasury had little trouble selling $109B of notes while new home sales increased 9.6 % in July. July durable goods orders increased 4.9%, the biggest monthly increase since July 2007, consumer confidence increased, and weekly jobless claims declined. Nice week but the stock market barley held on.
Freddie Mac weekly results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® reported 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.14 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending August 27, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 5.12 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.40 percent.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.67 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.57 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.03 percent.
The week that will be
The week ahead is filled with key economic readings. Manufacturing data, data on the service sector and lastly, on Friday, the August employment report. Going into the week the estimates for job losses is just 225K, not insignificant after 6.9 mil have already lost jobs, but still may be too optimistic. The unemployment rate is expected to increase 0.2% to 9.6%. If the estimates for job losses remains at 225K through the week, and the reality is much larger losses, that may be the trigger everyone is looking for to flip equity markets around. Through the week markets will likely be even more choppy than in the past three weeks, but by the end of the day Thursday ahead of employment, should be about where they start Monday morning. Possibly a rough trading week.
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