San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 11/29/2009
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The week that was:
- The minutes from the 11/4 FOMC meeting were released. Fed’s minutes reiterated the Fed isn’t anywhere close to increasing interest rates.
- Fed governors and regional bank presidents predicted the jobless rate will range from 9.3% to 9.7% in next year fourth quarter.
- Oct personal income increased 0.2% and spending was up 0.7%.
- The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 67.7 from 70.6 on the final read in Oct and slightly better than 66.0 two weeks ago.
- Oct new home sales jumped 6.2%. There is a 6.7 month supply based on current sales, the lowest level since 12/06.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association reported for the week ending November 20, 2009, mortgage loan application volume decreased 4.5% from one week earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 9.5% from the previous week The Purchase Index increased 9.6% from one week earlier.
- The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.82% from 4.83%, with points increasing to 1.19 from 1.18 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The week that will be:
Starts where we left off on Friday. A heavy economic calendar this week:
- Both ISM indexes (manufacturing and services) will hit as well as Nov auto and truck sales. On Wednesday the Fed Beige Book on the status of the economy from the 12 Fed districts.
- The Nov employment data bringing up the rear on Friday.
The week will be marked with increased market volatility in both stocks and interest rate markets.
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