San Jose Weekly Mortgage Commentary 12/6/09
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The week that was
- Oct existing and new home sales were much better than economists thought, the manufacturing sector better than thought, and auto sales stronger.
- The Nov employment report on Friday really shook things up; job losses only 11K with the unemployment rate lower, to 10.0% frm 10.2% in Oct and Sept.
- Interest rates increased last week by 25 basis points for the 10 yr note and 30 yr mortgages. While there is a general view that the Nov employment report was skewed a little and the decline in job losses an anomaly, with long term interest rates at these historic low levels, no one is willing to stand on that thought and rates continued to increase.
The Week that will be
- Starts with focus on how currency markets traded on Sunday evening in Asia and Europe. The dollar rallied strongly on Friday after the employment report on concerns the Fed may have to move up their plans for withdrawing zero interest rates.
- Not a lot of data this week; Oct consumer credit on Monday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and Nov retail sales on Friday are our headliners this week. Treasury will sell a total of $74B or notes and bonds.
Going into the week the interest rate markets are momentarily oversold technically; my momentum oscillators suggest a potential of some improvement as the week commences.
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