Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending August 31st, 2018

The Federal Reserve uses PCE Index, Personal Consumption Expenditures, as their preferred measure of inflation, and it's now hit a 6-year high at 2.3%. The impact of an uber strong GDP (4.2%), combined with the 2.3% PCE Index, should be causing a sell-off in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) - but that's not happening right now. The markets have stagnated waiting for Trade agreements to be hammered out and signed. At this point, Canada is at the table with the U.S. and the possibility exists they will sign by Friday, August 31st.  Mexico already…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending August 24th, 2018

If you read the economic "tea leaves," interest rates should be much higher right now than they are given the combination of a booming US economy, the Feds back to raising rates, and inflation solidly above 2.0%. What's holding them steady? Uncertainty in the markets keeps money invested in the bond market - seen as a safe haven for investors when there is actual or potential turmoil expected to rock the markets. Right now there's plenty of that going around. The main issues spooking investors are the continuing effects of tariffs and threatened…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending August 17th, 2018

Without any market-moving economic reports, mortgage-backed securities continue to perform as they have for weeks, with no change in sight. The job market remains strong, with unemployment at historically low levels - as in 48 year low. The only event on the global front that has had an impact on the markets is the collapse of Turkey's currency, and that was a minor market mover. Although it did create some flight to safety into US bonds, there was no significant impact on mortgage rates (see the chart in the section below.) It's notable…continue reading →

When Should You Lock in Your Mortgage Interest Rate?

One of the first decisions home buyers are faced with during the mortgage process is knowing when it's the right time to lock in an interest rate. The easy answer is when the rates are at their lowest - but when will that be? Or did you already miss it? Trying to answer this question and getting it right can drive you a little bit crazy. Try to put mortgage interest rates into a little perspective. First, it's important to know a few things about mortgage rates: You can't lock in an interest…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending August 10th, 2018

August continues to deliver the same doldrums in economic markets that have been present the past three months. Most economic data continues to come in at expectation, producing little effect on the markets. Inflation is coming in at 2.7% year over year, which is above the Feds target rate of 2%. Expect to see inflation beginning to increase noticeably as trade tariffs start to impact consumer prices. Jobs continue to be a strong point in the US economic data points, with jobless claims at an adjusted 45 year low. Wages are not showing…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending August 3rd, 2018

Despite continued tariff threats and retaliations between the US and China, the markets are reacting more to the continuing strength in the economy, led by a strong job market.  Overall, the impact on mortgage rates has been a very slight increase that looks more like a sideways movement. Globally, aside from the tariff issues, the Bank of England increased their interest rate this week for only the second time since the financial crisis, noting that the slowing of the economy in the first quarter of the year was temporary. There are no plans…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending July 27th

Mortgage rates have virtually treaded water for the summer, and it looks like that pattern will continue at least for another week.  At this point, nearing the end of the week of July 23rd, the economic data released was Durable Goods and the Weekly Jobless claims, and both came in at expected levels. Friday's GDP report is expected to come in at or above 3%, and the bond market will react negatively as it doesn't like anything at or above 3% for the GDP. There is a risk that this will bring an…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending July 20th

Mortgage rates finished up another week at almost the same point that they began.  It's been a stagnant two+ months for rates, and it doesn't appear to be breaking out of that pattern soon. All the recent economic data continues to point to building inflation, primarily due to a severely tight labor market. Jobless claims announced this week were not only below predictions, but they hit a 60 year low. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House this week, but his bias and policies are consistent, with no new information to…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap And Outlook For Week Ending July 13th, 2018

Overall, despite steady inflationary trends in economic data (Consumer Price Index hit the highest level since 2012), the threat of trade wars is keeping a large portion of investor funds in the US long-term bond market. Without an influx of additional investor dollars into US Bonds, there'll be no noticeable improvement in mortgage rates. While the market also watched for results from the NATO summit, now that it's ended - nothing concrete came from it (the 2% spending level for all member nations was already in the 2014 budget) and attention remains focused on the increasing threat…continue reading →

Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook For Week Ending June 29, 2018

It's tempting to take a risk and not lock in an interest rate when you see mortgage rates decline even by a small amount. This is not the week to give in to that temptation. The bond market, which directly impacts mortgage rates, is watching some potentially intense situations unfold globally and these situations could mean a reduction in interest rates if it weren't for one thing: technicals.  What does that even mean? First, let's look at the two leading global situations that have the bond markets' attention. The first is the EU…continue reading →