San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 11/01/2009
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The week that was:
A good week for the interest rate markets. Mortgage interest rates declined about 10 basis points. Treasury once again successfully sold $123B of notes in four auctions. Consumer confidence measured by The Conference Board declined more than expected, implying consumers may not be as convinced of a recovery as the equity markets.
Personal spending in Sept declined, new home sales were expected to be up slightly in Sept but declined 3.6%. Finally the stock market ended the week on what looks like the beginning of the long over-due correction that even the most bullish have been expecting for the past month. The DJIA declined 259 points last week, the rate markets benefited.
The week that will be:
2 Big news awaited: The industry is hopeful that the High Balance Conforming Limit and FHA Jumbo limit of maximum loan amount $729,750 will officially be extended this week through 2010. Also, there is a lot of buzz about First Time Home Buyer Credit being extended till April 30. Stay tuned!
There is an increasing buzz among traders that the Fed will alter the policy statement a little to take away market perception that the Fed will keep interest rates (FF rate) low for a “considerable” period; removing “considerable” with verbiage that allows the Fed more flexibility in the future. On Friday we will get the October employment report; estimates are for job losses to be a lot less than in the past year. Everyday this week markets will contend with economic reports of substance; ISM manufacturing on Monday, Oct auto and truck sales on Tuesday, ISM services on Wednesday (and the FOMC statement), Thursday weekly jobless claims. We expect market volatility to remain high.
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