San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 08/02/2009
The week that was
Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) for 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.25 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 30, 2009, upfrom last week when it averaged 5.20 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.52 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.75 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.74 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.07 percent.
Note that these rates are for loan amount $417,000 and lower.
The Treasury auctions to borrow $115B went OK with the biggest demand for the 7 yr note, a term not too popular with investors. June home sales were up 11.0% and got a lot of ink, but sales increasing 11.0% frm these very low levels, while a step in the right direction, isn’t likely to light a fire in the housing markets, it must keep going. The DJIA managed another increase, albeit a small one (+78).
The week that will be
Treasury doesn’t have to borrow more money, that occurs again next week. The economic calendar has a number of important items; June personal income and spending, the two ISM surveys (manufacturing and services), weekly jobless claims. Friday is the big one with the July employment statistics; early estimates are for job losses to be down 333K after 467K jobs lost in June, the unemployment rate at 9.6%, up frm 9.5% in June. Undoubtedly there will be some re-thinking the estimates as we approach Friday. On Wednesday the ADP jobs report is estimated at 345K job losses, ADP however does not calculate government jobs. Late Friday afternoon June consumer credit data hits, in normal times it doesn’t generate much attention, these times we pay a lot of attention to it as it provides another peek into consumer spending.