San Jose Weekly Mortgage Market Commentary 08/09/2009
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The week that was
Job losses were a lot less than expected; still 247K jobs lost with no real insight as the when it will finally flatten. The unemployment rate, expected to be up to. 9.7% fell to 9.4%, down 0.1% from June. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday fell by 38K to 550K filings for unemployment.
Both series were double blows to the gut for the rate markets, and manna for the stock market.
The week that will be
The stock market is seen as a gorge that has to have some digestion, yet so far its onward and upward. As long as stocks continue to increase on the belief the economy is on the path to recovery, the only way interest rates can, and will, go is up. This week is one that unless the stock market plunges, the interest rate markets have a huge hill to climb. Increasingly more conviction the economy is turning the corner: tie it to the massive increase in the budget deficits, the decline in the dollar, and the outlook that there is not going to be any substantive budget reduction in the next few years. The outlook for interest rates is at best status quo and more likely another 50 bps higher. This week is dominated by the quarterly refunding; Treasury will borrow a total of $75B in 3 yr, 10 yr, and 20 yr terms.
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