Starting today, I will be writing a weekly mortgage market commentary to take a quick look back on what happened last week and a preview of the coming week. Look out for this post every Sunday or Monday.

The week that was:

Freddie Mac released it’s results of weekly Mortgage market survey on July 16th. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates averaged 5.14% with 0.7 points, down from last week when it averaged 5.20% Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.26 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage rates (ARMs) averaged 4.83 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.80 percent.

Note that this is for conforming loan amounts below $417,000.

The week that will be:

This week, like last, will be about the equity markets and whether they continue to rally. The volume last week was not broad; there are still many that don’t buy into the idea the recession is over Not much on the economic calendar until Thursday and Friday; weekly jobless claims on Thursday along with June existing home sales, Friday the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Bernanke speaks on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rubber meets the road for bond markets on Thursday when Treasury will release the amounts for the following week’s 2 yr, 5 yr and 7 yr note auctions. Last month Treasury auctioned a total of $104B in the three offerings and saw extremely strong demand. Selling in equities, if it occurs early this week may bounce mortgage rates but won’t change the not-so-favorable near term outlook as long as optimism continues on recession ending soon.