Mortgage Rate Recap and Outlook for the Week Ending November 22, 2019
The effect of the Hong Kong protests (compounded by the judiciary’s stay on the mask ban) may not be as forthcoming immediately. Yet, it has what it takes to derail even the German and the US economy to some degree. It does not augur well for a US economy already being hit by the Trade War. The protests in Hong Kong (a Special Administrative Region of China) may well have brought the US Treasury down last week, thus bringing the 30 Yr Fixed below 4%.
Mortgage Rates: Rates Decrease across the Platform
This week’s Mortgage Banking Associations’ (MBA) weekly rate survey reveals a decrease in mortgage rate across the board.
According to the MBA Weekly Survey: “The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 3.99 percent from 4.03 percent, with points increasing to 0.33 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.”
1 point in cost = 1% of the loan amount
“The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate
mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater
than $484,350) decreased to 3.93 percent from 3.98 percent, with points increasing to 0.28 from 0.22 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week”
“The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.40 percent from 3.43 percent, with points increasing to 0.31 from 0.28 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.”
“The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.51 percent from 3.40 percent, with points increasing to 0.23 from 0.17 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. ”
Mortgage Rate Activity and Predictions
According to the Bankrate’s weekly survey of mortgage and economic experts, countrywide, a maximum number of experts believe rates will fall for the coming week (20th November to 27th November).
Out of those surveyed, 27% predict a rate hike while 46% foresee a decline in rates. The remaining 27% believe rates will remain unchanged (with a maximum movement of two basis points either side).
Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey has reported that the conforming rates for the week- 14th November to 21st November- have declined, the downtick being 0.05% for 15 Y fixed and 0.09% for 30Y fixed.
Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey noted, “The housing market continues to steadily gain momentum with rising homebuyer demand and increased construction due to the strong job market, ebullient market sentiment and low mortgage rates. Residential real estate accounts for one-sixth of the economy, and the improving real estate market will support economic growth heading into next year.”
Mortgage Rate Lock Advice
I would recommend you to Lock if you are closing within the next 7 days and Float if you are closing anytime farther than that.